Non-Linear Growth

A glimpse around the next corner; mind the curves.

When Platforms Collide; Mobile and Payments

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post that covered my areas of investment interest for 2010. Three of the areas I find most interesting are the mobile ecosystem and the payments sector and the theme of “platform” business models. You can find that post here. The natural question I’ve since been asked is:

“What about mobile payments?”

My friends at PYMNTS.com asked me to join in the discussion in their Briefing Room on Mobile Payments. My answers are here. As you will see, the format of the briefing room is five questions, with the emphasis on the intersection between payments and mobile application development platforms. I tried to answer the questions as directly as possible, but in the process, a couple of things went unsaid.

So, to add to the Briefing Room post, I should say I’m a big believer in mobile payment. The phone will be your “wallet” some day, although I can’t tell when. My sense is that adoption for online and mobile web/application payment will precede mobile payment at the traditional point of sale. I’m most interested in mobile payment in economies where electronic payment is an emerging alternative like developing economies and in last cash markets where the connectivity enabled by the mobile phone provides an entry point for electronic payment services to displace cash.

Regardless of the sector, I’d argue that mobile payment has to add value to the payment process to fully take hold. It is not sufficient to simply replace an existing electronic payment transaction with a mobile originated payment. That will cost more to the merchant, because it adds layers to the value chain and fundamentally adds no value.

Show me an opportunity to invest in a payment business leveraging mobile with a clear value proposition in a market segment that is accessible in the near term and you are likely to find a very engaged and interested prospective investor.

Filed under: Mobile, Payments, Platforms

You set the price; I’ll set the terms

Bill Daniels, a cable tycoon, was a consummate deal maker.  I never had the honor of meeting Bill, but his reputation in the industry has stood the test of time as have some quotes that have been attributed to him. My Partners, some of whom had the great pleasure of knowing and doing business with Bill, are fond of one such quote:

You set the price and I’ll set the terms.

From what I am told, Bill understood the interaction between pricing and structure better than most. The essence of the quote is that pricing and structure are inextricably linked; you cannot fully understand the valuation of the deal without fully understanding each of its elements.

Often, I find that entrepreneurs overemphasize pricing (the pre-money valuation) and under-value structure. This is understandable. The pre-money is “a number”. Being a number, it is easy to understand, requires little interpretation and is easy to communication.

Yeah, we got the venture guys to pay-up with a $(fill in the blank) pre-money.

The pre-money valuation of a deal lends itself to soundbite marketing and entrepreneurial chest-thumping. By driving pricing up, the entrepreneur can bring a big number back to his/her existing investors and Board, thereby validating what the entrepreneur has accomplished. This is all well and good; I’m all for entrepreneurs doing their fiduciary duty and battling to maximize pricing on the behalf of their existing investors. But a focus on pricing completely ignores the other half of the valuation equation, structure.

Unfortunately, in my experience, entrepreneurs over-value a high pre-money price and undervalue structure. Take the example of a $10 million last institutional growth capital round. Lets say the Company is choosing between a convertible preferred structure priced at a $20 million pre-money and a participating preferred structure with a $30 million pre-money. The chart below shows the payout to the new investor from this structure (the bottom axis is exit value, the left axis is $ returns to new investors. I’ve posted the full spreadsheet here.

This is an overly simplistic example, but I think it shows the interplay between structure and pricing very well. Notice that the returns for both structures diverge at the $10 million mark; this is the level at which the liquidating preferences of both structures are paid back. The difference is that the standard convertible preferred structure does not begin participating again until it is advantageous to convert and that happens only when the post-money valuation of the round is exceeded ($30 million). The participating instrument however begins to participate immediately after the liquidation preference is paid back. Although the participating instrument owns less of the company, it returns more than the standard convertible preferred structure all the way up to the $90 million exit value, where the structures are equal. The participation feature acts as a return accelerant at lower levels of exit valuation.

Why is this important? For me, the goal of pricing and structuring a new investment is to get a fair deal that maximizes the alignment between new investors, existing investors and management. By “fair”, I mean that it provides my limited partners with an expected return on capital invested that is commensurate with the risk of the investment. Getting to the right risk-adjusted return is a matter of both pricing and terms. When entrepreneurs try to push the pre-money valuation higher, investors have no choice but to respond with structural return “kickers” like participation features. In the scheme of things, a participating feature is a mild structural advantage for new investors; I’ve seen much worse (multiple liquidating preferences, performance based ownership ratchets, etc.) But even a participation feature can create a disconnect between the interests of existing investors/management and new investors. In this case, the participation feature may lower the new investor’s exit threshold, creating an incentive to sell earlier than they would otherwise. Caps and catch-ups can help to remedy this, but add another layer of complexity. And in my experience, complexity is rightly to be avoided because it often results in unintended consequences.

The point is that entrepreneurs should understand that valuation is matter of both pricing and terms. You cannot understand one without the other. The goal of alignment will always favor a simpler structure at a fair price. Unfortunately, in practice, things are never quite that straightforward.

Filed under: Venture Capital, , , , ,

The most important app on your phone

The last couple of days have seen a flurry of activity in mobile. Apple announced its response to Google’s acquisition of AdMob by acquiring mobile ad network, Quattro. Google announced the much awaited Google phone, the Nexus One.  The bulk of the discussion has been around the mobile application battle between Apple and Google.  Henry Blodgett thinks Apple is poised to repeat mistakes of the past by remaining a largely closed (or at least tightly controlled platform). Bill Gurley thinks the battle between Apple and Google is largely a business model question and that there is room for both, serving different segments of the market with Apple in the high-end of the market and Google in the low-end.

The bulk of the discussion is over who will dominate in mobile apps. To which platform will developers flock? Who will have the most apps? Who will be most expert at app monetization? To me, this entire discussion is missing the point; because it ignores the most important application on your mobile phone.

The most important application on your phone is the browser!

Hasn’t the web taught us anything? The web obviates the need for many (and eventually most) applications by enabling them to be delivered from “the cloud” through the browser. When we look back in five years, I think we will see clearly that the app. phenomenon was a temporary bridge to a rich, and highly functional mobile experience dominated by the browser. 

You can replicate just about everything mobile apps can do in a browser. In some cases you can do more in the browser. And as Java, Flash and other browser display technologies continue to roll-out, the browser will only become more powerful. And as 4G networks begin to roll out the browser will have the advantage of a fatter pipe. Fatter pipes shift the economics of app development away from edge processing and toward the cloud. The mobile web also has huge advantages for application developers; no carrier approvals, no app store approvals; totally open.

Apple’s issue is not whether Google will surpass them in the mobile app battle, but rather the speed with which usage will shift from apps to the browser where Google has substantial advantages in delivery infrastructure and monetization (search and display).

Just my two cents. What do you think?

Filed under: Mobile, Platforms, , , , , , , , , ,

Areas I’m most likely to invest in during 2010

I have always been fairly thematic in my investment approach. For me, the process starts with identifying big markets that are either 1) emerging (and will therefore be created over the next several years) or 2) undergoing some structural shift that will enable new entrants to grab market share from incumbents. I have seen Companies succeed in both types of markets and so I don’t have a preference for either approach. In 2010, there are a several big themes that I’m tracking which are likely to influence my investment selection during the year.

Everything is a service

For several years I’ve been spouting off about the notion that “everything is turning into a service”. I outlined some detailed thoughts on this trend in a post titled “The future is in services” last June. As I look several years out, I see several big value chains threatened by this trend, creating opportunities for upstarts. For example, I think there will continue to be pockets of attractive investments in SaaS. But where I see big opportunity is in cloud based services and platforms that enable the cloud to become a true utility to the enterprise, small business and even consumers. Transforming computing from a product into a service is a non-trivial shift that will take many years, but the march is on and the direction of the trend is undeniable. Computing, storage, etc. will all primarily be purchased as a service in the not too distant future.

Platforms

For me, 2010 will be the year of the platform. The notion of open platforms that enable third-party developers to innovate on top of the platform by consuming API is alluring to me. I’ve already put my money where my mouth is on this one as several of my investments have ”platform” as a core component of their product and go-to-market strategy. Communications is an areas that has largely been untouched by the platform trend. It seems to me that the time is ripe for the network to begin opening up. I’ve written about this in the past on my firm’s blog; you can find that post here. The post is a bit dated, but I think you will get the point. Location services is another area where I think there are platform plays emerging.

Payments

I have an inkling that innovation is finally coming to payments. There have been some big exits in recent months, including BillMeLater and Revolution Money. Neither is particularly reflective of the type of innovation I think is coming in payment, but both show the size/scale of businesses that can be built given the massive size of the payments sector. With PayPal opening up its platform to third-party developers, there is going to be a rash of new payment application development in the coming years. As an investor in IP Commerce, I have a special perch from which to watch this trend. I’m staggered by the diversity of payment applications being developed on top of the IP Commerce platform. Several have already caught my eye as potential new investments and I believe more will do the same in 2010. I’m also tracking some big last cash markets, which I think are finally opening up to electronic payment providers.

Mobile

Mobile is an area I have tracked closely for several years now. And while some would argue that the market has disappointed, I would counter that we are still in only the early innings of a very long game. I continue to believe firmly in the mobile web, or the web optimized for the display needs and the unique capabilities/properties of mobile phones. I’m less enthusiastic about applications being developed for the iPhone/Android/RIM and other operating systems; or at least less enthusiastic about investing in companies that create those apps. There is just too much OS fragmentation for application developers to manage effectively and it is difficult to make any particular app stand out in the crowd.. As 4G networks begin to roll out, more bandwidth may obviate the need for a downloadable app. In some ways, apps remind me of PointCast; remember that? I’ll continue to track this trend closely, but as it stands, my money is on the web, not the apps in the long-run. Regardless, I’m more interested in the infrastructure and plumbing in mobile than the consumer-facing application side. The fact is that the mobile use case is fundamentally different from the web and it enables usage paradigms that are not relevant on the tethered web. As a result, the capabilities of the plumbing for mobile need to cater to what is unique about the mobile experience, creating an opportunity for new players to stake out a dominant and differentiated position.

I’m likely to make two new investments in 2010. I am more likely to prioritize my review of investments that synch with the themes outlined in this post. I’m also more likely to make investments in these areas than other areas I’m not tracking as closely. Having said that, I think it is critical to marry a thematic (and therefore planful) approach to identifying great investments with an opportunistic approach. So I don’t rule out making investments in other areas in 2010. I know there will be several entrepreneurs with whom I interact who light a spark causing me to dig deep into areas not outlined in this post. Frankly, I look forward to having that spark lit; it is a great part of the process of discovery that the VC business requires.

Filed under: Cloud, Investment Selection, Payments, Platforms, Themes, Venture Capital, Wireless, , , , , , ,

Affirmations for a VC in 2010

For me, the end of a year and beginning of a new one is an opportunity to step back and reaffirm core beliefs. The list of affirmations (really reaffirmations, because I have believed what is written below for some time but never committed the thoughts to writing) are what you might consider guiding, daily operating principles. Because these beliefs may help to explain my behaviour, entrepreneurs with whom I interact and my colleagues in the business may benefit from reading this post.

In no particular order:

1. Be Accessible

I believe it is a VCs responsibility to be a resource to the entrepreneurial community. A VC must be accessible by the community in order to deliver on that responsibility. This is not entirely altruistic; by being accessible, we develop a network of relationships and put ourselves into the flow of ideas that is the lifeblood of innovation and value creation. I endeavor to be more accessible to entrepreneurs this year than ever before. I’ll start by reaffirming how you can best reach me; here. If you have other suggestions regarding how I can be more accessible, I’d like to hear from you.

2. Be Present

We live in a world with a massive amount of stimulus and more ways to communicate than ever before. But so long as we are operating in the physical world, with synchronous face to face or telephonic interactions, it is imperative to be in the moment. Anything less is disrespectful to the person(s) you are interacting with. So turn off the cell phone for that board meeting, put your computer on sleep mode when you are on the phone. Sit up, lean forward and engage.  Deeply. Richly; as if the current conversation you are having is the most important one in your world. This shouldn’t be hard, because the current conversation you are having IS the most important one in your world; right now.

3. Be Scarce

Time. It is our most precious and fleeting resource. Once squandered, it cannot be gained back. I’m committed to using my time wisely this year. Doing so takes a  level of selfishness. If I do not make time for you, it is because I have decided it is not worth my time. If it is not worth my time, it is also not worth your time and so by the transitive property, I am saving you time by not spending time with you.

3. Plan and React

I’m a big believer in the idea that you can’t find what you don’t yet know you are looking for. This applies to finding great investments as much as anything else in life. I come into the year with a clear sense for the areas in which I’d like to find the two new investments I’d like to make (blog post brewing). I’m also committed to being flexible enough to understand that I must listen to the market, learn, adapt and react. As a result, what I am looking for may necessarily change as the events of the year unfold. And so in 2010, I’m committed to striking a balance between the discipline of proactive, planned sourcing and reacting to the market as it reveals itself.

4. Be Patient and Empathize

I believe that great businesses are not built overnight. The process takes years of laborious effort, smarts and a dash of luck. I admire entrepreneurs who have the stamina and perseverance to run the gauntlet and exit the process with a success. In 2010, I aspire to matching the stamina of the entrepreneurs I back, to be patient in the face of adversity and to remember that this is a people business. Empathy is the grease that makes the whole process run smoothly.

5. Be Urgent

Yes, building a business takes patience. However, I have no patience for a lack of a sense of urgency. There is never a better time to take the next step toward the success of the business than right now. Like the Seuss book “Oh the places you’ll go”, if you are…

headed, I fear, toward a most useless place. The Waiting Place.. for people just waiting.

we’ll need to talk in 2010.

6. Expect a herculean effort

Success comes first and foremost to those that work hard for it. There is no replacement for effort; it is table stakes and therefore must be expected. This goes for entrepreneurs and VCs. Sometimes success comes to those that don’t work hard, but that is not replicable. In 2010, I don’t expect to be lucky; I do expect to work my tail off. I’m likely to expect the same of you if we have the good fortune to work together.

7. Expect realistic results; and work to create break-out growth

Results are a lagging indicator of success; they trail effort. Goals that are unrealistic are worthless. I aspire to expecting results that are realistic and achievable. I am also not satisfied with the expected and so I aspire to help my companies create break-out growth that blows the expectations away.  I expect the entrepreneurs with whom I work to meet the expectations and to work to wildly exceed them.

8. Engage in the play-by-play

When it comes to working with portfolio companies, I aspire to being shoulder to shoulder with the entrepreneurs I’ve backed. Yes, I want to be a coach, but I also want to be a resource using my time, energy, effort and resources to assist the entrepreneur in achieving his/her goals. If you want to improve the outcome for your team, you can’t sit back and watch the scoreboard. The only way to make an impact is to get on the field. In 2010, I aspire to engage deeply in the issues and opportunities faced by my portfolio companies and to make time to understand  the evolution of the business, play-by-play.

9. Be humble and accountable

For some reason, VCs have been put on a pedestal. This is largely because of the association of VCs with successful companies. Of course, this ignores the unsuccessful companies that VCs back; apparently, those don’t count. I aspire to never forget that it is the entrepreneurs that create the value. I intend to give credit where credit is due, never accept credit for the accomplishments of others and accept responsibility for my failures. I expect the same of the CEOs I back.

10. Never lose sight of the scoreboard

Ultimately, there is only one way to keep score in the VC business; generating returns for our investors. Never lose sight of this fact. As a result, I aspire to treating the capital I am trusted with as sacred.

I aspire to live up to each and every one of these affirmations, but I also understand that my efforts will sometimes fall short. When (not if) I do fall short, please feel free to call me out on it. You will be doing me a favor.

Filed under: Venture Capital, ,

My Twitter Feed

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