Non-Linear Growth

A glimpse around the next corner; mind the curves.

When Platforms Collide; Mobile and Payments

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post that covered my areas of investment interest for 2010. Three of the areas I find most interesting are the mobile ecosystem and the payments sector and the theme of “platform” business models. You can find that post here. The natural question I’ve since been asked is:

“What about mobile payments?”

My friends at PYMNTS.com asked me to join in the discussion in their Briefing Room on Mobile Payments. My answers are here. As you will see, the format of the briefing room is five questions, with the emphasis on the intersection between payments and mobile application development platforms. I tried to answer the questions as directly as possible, but in the process, a couple of things went unsaid.

So, to add to the Briefing Room post, I should say I’m a big believer in mobile payment. The phone will be your “wallet” some day, although I can’t tell when. My sense is that adoption for online and mobile web/application payment will precede mobile payment at the traditional point of sale. I’m most interested in mobile payment in economies where electronic payment is an emerging alternative like developing economies and in last cash markets where the connectivity enabled by the mobile phone provides an entry point for electronic payment services to displace cash.

Regardless of the sector, I’d argue that mobile payment has to add value to the payment process to fully take hold. It is not sufficient to simply replace an existing electronic payment transaction with a mobile originated payment. That will cost more to the merchant, because it adds layers to the value chain and fundamentally adds no value.

Show me an opportunity to invest in a payment business leveraging mobile with a clear value proposition in a market segment that is accessible in the near term and you are likely to find a very engaged and interested prospective investor.

Filed under: Mobile, Payments, Platforms

The most important app on your phone

The last couple of days have seen a flurry of activity in mobile. Apple announced its response to Google’s acquisition of AdMob by acquiring mobile ad network, Quattro. Google announced the much awaited Google phone, the Nexus One.  The bulk of the discussion has been around the mobile application battle between Apple and Google.  Henry Blodgett thinks Apple is poised to repeat mistakes of the past by remaining a largely closed (or at least tightly controlled platform). Bill Gurley thinks the battle between Apple and Google is largely a business model question and that there is room for both, serving different segments of the market with Apple in the high-end of the market and Google in the low-end.

The bulk of the discussion is over who will dominate in mobile apps. To which platform will developers flock? Who will have the most apps? Who will be most expert at app monetization? To me, this entire discussion is missing the point; because it ignores the most important application on your mobile phone.

The most important application on your phone is the browser!

Hasn’t the web taught us anything? The web obviates the need for many (and eventually most) applications by enabling them to be delivered from “the cloud” through the browser. When we look back in five years, I think we will see clearly that the app. phenomenon was a temporary bridge to a rich, and highly functional mobile experience dominated by the browser. 

You can replicate just about everything mobile apps can do in a browser. In some cases you can do more in the browser. And as Java, Flash and other browser display technologies continue to roll-out, the browser will only become more powerful. And as 4G networks begin to roll out the browser will have the advantage of a fatter pipe. Fatter pipes shift the economics of app development away from edge processing and toward the cloud. The mobile web also has huge advantages for application developers; no carrier approvals, no app store approvals; totally open.

Apple’s issue is not whether Google will surpass them in the mobile app battle, but rather the speed with which usage will shift from apps to the browser where Google has substantial advantages in delivery infrastructure and monetization (search and display).

Just my two cents. What do you think?

Filed under: Mobile, Platforms, , , , , , , , , ,

My Twitter Feed

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.