Non-Linear VC

A glimpse around the next corner; mind the curves.

You set the price; I’ll set the terms

Bill Daniels, a cable tycoon, was a consummate deal maker.  I never had the honor of meeting Bill, but his reputation in the industry has stood the test of time as have some quotes that have been attributed to him. My Partners, some of whom had the great pleasure of knowing and doing business with Bill, are fond of one such quote:

You set the price and I’ll set the terms.

From what I am told, Bill understood the interaction between pricing and structure better than most. The essence of the quote is that pricing and structure are inextricably linked; you cannot fully understand the valuation of the deal without fully understanding each of its elements.

Often, I find that entrepreneurs overemphasize pricing (the pre-money valuation) and under-value structure. This is understandable. The pre-money is “a number”. Being a number, it is easy to understand, requires little interpretation and is easy to communication.

Yeah, we got the venture guys to pay-up with a $(fill in the blank) pre-money.

The pre-money valuation of a deal lends itself to soundbite marketing and entrepreneurial chest-thumping. By driving pricing up, the entrepreneur can bring a big number back to his/her existing investors and Board, thereby validating what the entrepreneur has accomplished. This is all well and good; I’m all for entrepreneurs doing their fiduciary duty and battling to maximize pricing on the behalf of their existing investors. But a focus on pricing completely ignores the other half of the valuation equation, structure.

Unfortunately, in my experience, entrepreneurs over-value a high pre-money price and undervalue structure. Take the example of a $10 million last institutional growth capital round. Lets say the Company is choosing between a convertible preferred structure priced at a $20 million pre-money and a participating preferred structure with a $30 million pre-money. The chart below shows the payout to the new investor from this structure (the bottom axis is exit value, the left axis is $ returns to new investors. I’ve posted the full spreadsheet here.

This is an overly simplistic example, but I think it shows the interplay between structure and pricing very well. Notice that the returns for both structures diverge at the $10 million mark; this is the level at which the liquidating preferences of both structures are paid back. The difference is that the standard convertible preferred structure does not begin participating again until it is advantageous to convert and that happens only when the post-money valuation of the round is exceeded ($30 million). The participating instrument however begins to participate immediately after the liquidation preference is paid back. Although the participating instrument owns less of the company, it returns more than the standard convertible preferred structure all the way up to the $90 million exit value, where the structures are equal. The participation feature acts as a return accelerant at lower levels of exit valuation.

Why is this important? For me, the goal of pricing and structuring a new investment is to get a fair deal that maximizes the alignment between new investors, existing investors and management. By “fair”, I mean that it provides my limited partners with an expected return on capital invested that is commensurate with the risk of the investment. Getting to the right risk-adjusted return is a matter of both pricing and terms. When entrepreneurs try to push the pre-money valuation higher, investors have no choice but to respond with structural return “kickers” like participation features. In the scheme of things, a participating feature is a mild structural advantage for new investors; I’ve seen much worse (multiple liquidating preferences, performance based ownership ratchets, etc.) But even a participation feature can create a disconnect between the interests of existing investors/management and new investors. In this case, the participation feature may lower the new investor’s exit threshold, creating an incentive to sell earlier than they would otherwise. Caps and catch-ups can help to remedy this, but add another layer of complexity. And in my experience, complexity is rightly to be avoided because it often results in unintended consequences.

The point is that entrepreneurs should understand that valuation is matter of both pricing and terms. You cannot understand one without the other. The goal of alignment will always favor a simpler structure at a fair price. Unfortunately, in practice, things are never quite that straightforward.

Filed under: Venture Capital , , , , ,

Areas I’m most likely to invest in during 2010

I have always been fairly thematic in my investment approach. For me, the process starts with identifying big markets that are either 1) emerging (and will therefore be created over the next several years) or 2) undergoing some structural shift that will enable new entrants to grab market share from incumbents. I have seen Companies succeed in both types of markets and so I don’t have a preference for either approach. In 2010, there are a several big themes that I’m tracking which are likely to influence my investment selection during the year.

Everything is a service

For several years I’ve been spouting off about the notion that “everything is turning into a service”. I outlined some detailed thoughts on this trend in a post titled “The future is in services” last June. As I look several years out, I see several big value chains threatened by this trend, creating opportunities for upstarts. For example, I think there will continue to be pockets of attractive investments in SaaS. But where I see big opportunity is in cloud based services and platforms that enable the cloud to become a true utility to the enterprise, small business and even consumers. Transforming computing from a product into a service is a non-trivial shift that will take many years, but the march is on and the direction of the trend is undeniable. Computing, storage, etc. will all primarily be purchased as a service in the not too distant future.

Platforms

For me, 2010 will be the year of the platform. The notion of open platforms that enable third-party developers to innovate on top of the platform by consuming API is alluring to me. I’ve already put my money where my mouth is on this one as several of my investments have ”platform” as a core component of their product and go-to-market strategy. Communications is an areas that has largely been untouched by the platform trend. It seems to me that the time is ripe for the network to begin opening up. I’ve written about this in the past on my firm’s blog; you can find that post here. The post is a bit dated, but I think you will get the point. Location services is another area where I think there are platform plays emerging.

Payments

I have an inkling that innovation is finally coming to payments. There have been some big exits in recent months, including BillMeLater and Revolution Money. Neither is particularly reflective of the type of innovation I think is coming in payment, but both show the size/scale of businesses that can be built given the massive size of the payments sector. With PayPal opening up its platform to third-party developers, there is going to be a rash of new payment application development in the coming years. As an investor in IP Commerce, I have a special perch from which to watch this trend. I’m staggered by the diversity of payment applications being developed on top of the IP Commerce platform. Several have already caught my eye as potential new investments and I believe more will do the same in 2010. I’m also tracking some big last cash markets, which I think are finally opening up to electronic payment providers.

Mobile

Mobile is an area I have tracked closely for several years now. And while some would argue that the market has disappointed, I would counter that we are still in only the early innings of a very long game. I continue to believe firmly in the mobile web, or the web optimized for the display needs and the unique capabilities/properties of mobile phones. I’m less enthusiastic about applications being developed for the iPhone/Android/RIM and other operating systems; or at least less enthusiastic about investing in companies that create those apps. There is just too much OS fragmentation for application developers to manage effectively and it is difficult to make any particular app stand out in the crowd.. As 4G networks begin to roll out, more bandwidth may obviate the need for a downloadable app. In some ways, apps remind me of PointCast; remember that? I’ll continue to track this trend closely, but as it stands, my money is on the web, not the apps in the long-run. Regardless, I’m more interested in the infrastructure and plumbing in mobile than the consumer-facing application side. The fact is that the mobile use case is fundamentally different from the web and it enables usage paradigms that are not relevant on the tethered web. As a result, the capabilities of the plumbing for mobile need to cater to what is unique about the mobile experience, creating an opportunity for new players to stake out a dominant and differentiated position.

I’m likely to make two new investments in 2010. I am more likely to prioritize my review of investments that synch with the themes outlined in this post. I’m also more likely to make investments in these areas than other areas I’m not tracking as closely. Having said that, I think it is critical to marry a thematic (and therefore planful) approach to identifying great investments with an opportunistic approach. So I don’t rule out making investments in other areas in 2010. I know there will be several entrepreneurs with whom I interact who light a spark causing me to dig deep into areas not outlined in this post. Frankly, I look forward to having that spark lit; it is a great part of the process of discovery that the VC business requires.

Filed under: Cloud, Investment Selection, Payments, Platforms, Themes, Venture Capital, Wireless , , , , , , ,

Affirmations for a VC in 2010

For me, the end of a year and beginning of a new one is an opportunity to step back and reaffirm core beliefs. The list of affirmations (really reaffirmations, because I have believed what is written below for some time but never committed the thoughts to writing) are what you might consider guiding, daily operating principles. Because these beliefs may help to explain my behaviour, entrepreneurs with whom I interact and my colleagues in the business may benefit from reading this post.

In no particular order:

1. Be Accessible

I believe it is a VCs responsibility to be a resource to the entrepreneurial community. A VC must be accessible by the community in order to deliver on that responsibility. This is not entirely altruistic; by being accessible, we develop a network of relationships and put ourselves into the flow of ideas that is the lifeblood of innovation and value creation. I endeavor to be more accessible to entrepreneurs this year than ever before. I’ll start by reaffirming how you can best reach me; here. If you have other suggestions regarding how I can be more accessible, I’d like to hear from you.

2. Be Present

We live in a world with a massive amount of stimulus and more ways to communicate than ever before. But so long as we are operating in the physical world, with synchronous face to face or telephonic interactions, it is imperative to be in the moment. Anything less is disrespectful to the person(s) you are interacting with. So turn off the cell phone for that board meeting, put your computer on sleep mode when you are on the phone. Sit up, lean forward and engage.  Deeply. Richly; as if the current conversation you are having is the most important one in your world. This shouldn’t be hard, because the current conversation you are having IS the most important one in your world; right now.

3. Be Scarce

Time. It is our most precious and fleeting resource. Once squandered, it cannot be gained back. I’m committed to using my time wisely this year. Doing so takes a  level of selfishness. If I do not make time for you, it is because I have decided it is not worth my time. If it is not worth my time, it is also not worth your time and so by the transitive property, I am saving you time by not spending time with you.

3. Plan and React

I’m a big believer in the idea that you can’t find what you don’t yet know you are looking for. This applies to finding great investments as much as anything else in life. I come into the year with a clear sense for the areas in which I’d like to find the two new investments I’d like to make (blog post brewing). I’m also committed to being flexible enough to understand that I must listen to the market, learn, adapt and react. As a result, what I am looking for may necessarily change as the events of the year unfold. And so in 2010, I’m committed to striking a balance between the discipline of proactive, planned sourcing and reacting to the market as it reveals itself.

4. Be Patient and Empathize

I believe that great businesses are not built overnight. The process takes years of laborious effort, smarts and a dash of luck. I admire entrepreneurs who have the stamina and perseverance to run the gauntlet and exit the process with a success. In 2010, I aspire to matching the stamina of the entrepreneurs I back, to be patient in the face of adversity and to remember that this is a people business. Empathy is the grease that makes the whole process run smoothly.

5. Be Urgent

Yes, building a business takes patience. However, I have no patience for a lack of a sense of urgency. There is never a better time to take the next step toward the success of the business than right now. Like the Seuss book “Oh the places you’ll go”, if you are…

headed, I fear, toward a most useless place. The Waiting Place.. for people just waiting.

we’ll need to talk in 2010.

6. Expect a herculean effort

Success comes first and foremost to those that work hard for it. There is no replacement for effort; it is table stakes and therefore must be expected. This goes for entrepreneurs and VCs. Sometimes success comes to those that don’t work hard, but that is not replicable. In 2010, I don’t expect to be lucky; I do expect to work my tail off. I’m likely to expect the same of you if we have the good fortune to work together.

7. Expect realistic results; and work to create break-out growth

Results are a lagging indicator of success; they trail effort. Goals that are unrealistic are worthless. I aspire to expecting results that are realistic and achievable. I am also not satisfied with the expected and so I aspire to help my companies create break-out growth that blows the expectations away.  I expect the entrepreneurs with whom I work to meet the expectations and to work to wildly exceed them.

8. Engage in the play-by-play

When it comes to working with portfolio companies, I aspire to being shoulder to shoulder with the entrepreneurs I’ve backed. Yes, I want to be a coach, but I also want to be a resource using my time, energy, effort and resources to assist the entrepreneur in achieving his/her goals. If you want to improve the outcome for your team, you can’t sit back and watch the scoreboard. The only way to make an impact is to get on the field. In 2010, I aspire to engage deeply in the issues and opportunities faced by my portfolio companies and to make time to understand  the evolution of the business, play-by-play.

9. Be humble and accountable

For some reason, VCs have been put on a pedestal. This is largely because of the association of VCs with successful companies. Of course, this ignores the unsuccessful companies that VCs back; apparently, those don’t count. I aspire to never forget that it is the entrepreneurs that create the value. I intend to give credit where credit is due, never accept credit for the accomplishments of others and accept responsibility for my failures. I expect the same of the CEOs I back.

10. Never lose sight of the scoreboard

Ultimately, there is only one way to keep score in the VC business; generating returns for our investors. Never lose sight of this fact. As a result, I aspire to treating the capital I am trusted with as sacred.

I aspire to live up to each and every one of these affirmations, but I also understand that my efforts will sometimes fall short. When (not if) I do fall short, please feel free to call me out on it. You will be doing me a favor.

Filed under: Venture Capital , ,

The make or break fallacy

It seems inevitable that every startup hits an inflection point; a “make or break moment”. There is no path to success that doesn’t include these moments. You have to go through them; they are not optional.

The catalysts that create make or break moments vary. Sometimes the catalyst is external; perhaps the market meeting your product, an acquisition by one of your potential partner’s competitors. Sometimes the catalyst is internal; a great new product release, a partner deliverable. We all know what these moments look like; we’ve all described a moment in time as “make or break”.

The notion of “making” a business in a singular moment is alluring. But entrepreneurs rarely think about the execution risks they will face after they’ve “made the business”; and the fact that there are likely to be future “make or break” moments where they will also have to avoid breaking. For me, ”make or break” is a fallacy. You can absolutely break a business in a singular moment, but rarely can you make a business that way. The only way to truly “make” a business is to exit it, in which case, future execution risk and future “make or break” moments become irrelevant.

Perhaps we should rename ”make or break”. Lets call it a “don’t break” moment. ”Don’t break” moments comes with the recognition that by not breaking, you create opportunity to execute well in the future so that you can see future “make or break” moments where you must also “not break”. If you make it through the gauntlet of multiple “don’t break” moments, you might just have the opportunity to exit the business for a monumental value at some point in the future.

How would you rename the “make or break” moment?

Filed under: Lessons Learned, Venture Capital , , ,

What we have here is a failure to plan

Well, it’s that time of year; the end of the year that is. Time for holiday cheer, budgets and for a rare few, strategic planning. I say for a few because I’m frequently surprised at how little I hear from the VC community and VC-backed CEOs about strategic planning. When I do hear about planning, it is usually an entrepreneur or VC trying to explain to me why it is not necessary. The rationalizations go something like this:

Planning is for big companies.

Our space moves too fast to plan; if we define a strategy we’ll just have to change it in a couple of months.

We’re small, nimble and well-coordinated so we don’t need to plan.

Everyone in my company already knows what they should be working on.

Sorry to be Scroogy, but to those rationalizations I say hogwash! Go ask five of your employees to define the single most important thing the company needs to accomplish next year. Better yet, go ask your executive team; they should know, right? If you get more than one flavor of answer, you need a strategic plan.

Lets be honest, when you cut to the chase, the real reason entrepreneurs and VC’s object to planning is that it takes time, effort and concerted thought. Planning also implies goal setting and goal-setting implies there are objectives you can measure results against, and that implies accountability. Time, effort, concerted thought and accountability; who wants that hassle?

Planning doesn’t have to be complicated or burdensome. For me, planning is like creating a mental map.

Where am I, where am I going and how to I get there?

The process starts with an honest assessment of where you are. Unfortunately, in our reality-bound world, you don’t get to navigate from where you want to be; you can only navigate from where you are. When you are climbing a mountain, you don’t get to start 100 feet from the summit (that is unless you’ve driven to the top of Mt. Evans, in which case you are cheating in my opinion). Planning forces you to come to grips with where you are on a strategy map.

Planning also forces you to define your destination. If you can’t define where you are going, you are wandering aimlessly in the woods.  The rationalization that your space moves too fast to define the destination is not acceptable. At minimum, you should be able to create a directionally correct picture of the future that you are striving to create (ie. Our destination is to the west). The destination you articulate should be worthwhile and aspirational, yet realistic. Don’t worry if the destination changes in a future planning session; that is natural in an emerging market space. But the notion that the destination may change is a lame excuse for not planning at all.

Finally, planning forces you to create an execution path that closes the gap between where you are and where you want to be. If you can’t define the execution focus that will help you to close the gap between where you are and where you want to be, how can you expect your employees know how to close the gap? Tactically focused, execution oriented people you find in most companies need to know how to get from point A to point B in oder to be effective. It is your job to give them the map and show them how their job fits in.

Planning 101: Keep it simple

Planning doesn’t have to be complicated. To really boil it down, we can dispense with the “soft fuzzy stuff”; mission, vision, strategic intent, etc; although I’m a believer that those pieces of strategy have merit. For an emerging growth company, planning should be about two categories of issues:

  1. The things that you can accomplish that will make you wildly successful and;
  2. The things that you can do to yourself or that can happen to you that will kill your business if you do not prevent them from happening.

My Partners and I at Meritage call these the “Critical Issues”. There should be no more than five to seven of them. If you have ten or more critical issues, you probably don’t have the time, knowledge, resources or capital to execute your plan. Embedded in the critical issues is where you are, and where you need to go (point A and point B on a map). With those points in mind, the next step is to determine the route you are going to take.

For our companies, we like a set of three to five initiatives lined up against each of the critical issues. The initiatives provide tactical guidance regarding what you can to get from point A to B. Initiatives must be within your control; saying that your market must grow 50% next year is not an initiative. Initiatives must also not be prescriptive. “Sell better” is not an initiative, whereas “implement sales training program” clearly is.

Finally, now that you’ve defined the initiatives you are going to execute against, we have our companies establish measurements that define their success against the initiatives. Measurements must be, well, measurable. In other words, use numbers and dates; 10 enterprise customers by year-end, 8.5+ on customer satisfaction survey, version x.x of the product released by June 30, 2009 and on budget. Again, keep it simple; three to five measurements per critical issue is sufficient in our experience.

Putting critical issues, initiatives and measurements into a three column table gets your entire strategy map on one piece of paper. That is remarkable because it provides a simple communication tool to use with employees, Boards and shareholders. Some of our companies use the three columns as the first page of their Board reports and add a red-yellow-green light next to each critical issue to reflect the CEO’s overall assessment of progress against the critical issues. This format makes for an effective visual representative of progress.

This may sound old school, but its my experience that management teams that are honest about where they are, who know where they are going and are able to outline the key steps to get there perform better than management teams that can’t commit these things to paper. If you don’t have the vision to anticipate where you should be by the end of next year, shorten the time-frame; do quarterly or semi-annual planning.

Choosing not plan at all is a massive failure of leadership. So get your management team in a room and hash it out; you will all be better off for it and so will your company’s performance.

Filed under: Venture Capital , , ,

My Twitter Feed

  • RT @JumpTap: #mobileupfront John Hadl favors mobile browser over apps and thinks it will win > I agree; eventually. 15 hours ago
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