Non-Linear Growth

A glimpse around the next corner; mind the curves.

Finding the Proverbial Pony

Tech people use the phrase “there is a pony in here somewhere” to describe a tough situation where there is a hidden big opportunity. I hear it most often in the context of a stagnating business that can’t seem to break-out and needs a new catalyst for growth. For example, in businesses that need to make a pivot (btw, the most overused word of 2010/2011 in my mind).

I like the idea behind finding the pony, although not the specific phrase for reasons made clear below. Which leaves a very important question: How do you find the pony? I recommend the following process:

1) Deconstruct Your Assets/Capabilities/Resources: Pull every part of your company, organization, product and systems apart. Absolutely deconstruct each of these parts of the business into their smallest base elements.

2) Get Out of the Office: Plan a day out of the office with no agenda and nothing more than a white-board and the list of your assets/capabilities/resources. Bring in the most creative people you can find from within and outside of your company. Bring in people from spaces that are on the periphery to the space in which you current operate. You want to avoid groupthink so a diversity of backgrounds is better.

3) Evaluate Each Element: As a group, evaluate each of the elements you have isolated. Focus on the raw component parts of your existing product. One of those base elements might be the nugget of a big idea, but was too buried in a system view of your product for you to see it. Also focus your time on elements that are nearest in proximity to revenue streams. That is to say, focus on elements that enable other companies to generate revenue, as opposed to those that will require you to be a vendor selling a back-office product at a “cost”. Prioritize your top ideas.

4) Groups: Break-up into groups, assigning each two ideas. Make sure there is overlap, so that at least two groups cover each idea. Assign each group to come back with a back of the napkin business plan idea for the high priority components you have identified.

5) Research: Take the best ideas and work them.

This exercise won’t automagically generate a whole product or write the business plan, but it might lead you down the right path.

An Aside:

So why don’t I like the phrase? Well, the genesis of the phase “there is a pony in here somewhere” is a joke. It goes something like this:

Once upon a time, there was a mom and dad that had two children. One of them was an optimist, the other a pessimist.   Wanting to understand why the two children were so different, they consulted a psychiatrist, who set up an experiment to help figure it out. The psychiatrist led the first child into a room that was full of brand new toys. Immediately the child burst into tears.   The psychiatrist asked why, and the child replied “all of these toys are new, and if I start playing with them I’m afraid I might break one.”   Obviously, this was the pessimist. So the psychiatrist led the other to a room that was full of horse manure. The child immediately dove in, scooping out handfuls of the disgusting stuff.   The psychiatrist asked why the child was doing that, he replied “with all this horse manure, there has to be a pony around here somewhere, and I’m gonna find it.”

I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather polish a diamond in the rough than find the pony.

Filed under: Random, , , ,

What it means to be non-linear

Some years ago, I promised myself I would start a blog, but only after I crossed the chasm of having been in the venture business for five+ years. After all, what could you possibly have to say that is of interest to anyone before you’ve seen a few great outcomes and a couple of disasters. Well, I’ve now been in the game for over six years and I’ve finally gotten off my duff to get this going.

I’ve learned a lot in my six years in the business. The first thing I’ve learned is that I have a lot more to learn. Failure is part of the system; you can not be a VC without encountering frequent failure. I’m pretty comfortable with that; the trick is to learn from your mistakes and learn fast. Nothing frustrates me more than hearing others attribute their investment failures to “external factors outside of my control” - an “irrational competitor”, a “tough market”, ”too much capital sloshing around in the space”. No, you made a bet and it didn’t work out; deal with it. If you attribute failure to factors beyond your control, you deprive yourself from an opportunity to learn. It turns out that one of the key personality traits that separates the great VCs from the pack is totally non-intuitive. Can you guess what it is? The answer later on.

The second thing I’ve learned is that things never work out quite as you plan them; even the successes. I’m a big believer in strategic planning. But I also believe that linear strategic planning (set a goal, create an execution plan and stick to it) is a recipe for disaster in emerging markets. What is required is “emergent” strategy, define the future you want to create, listen to the customers you wish to serve and meet their needs. Bill Taylor at Harvard Business School’s blog had a nice post on a related topic just the other day. In it he takes on the topic of whether MBAs or entrepreneurs are better suited to dealing with “tough times”. The results of the research are pretty interesting, although I don’t agree with the MBA vs. entrepreneur dimension along which the analysis is framed.

The difference in mindset, Sarasvathy concludes, boils down to a different take on the future. “Causal reasoning is based on the logic, To the extent that we can predict the future, we can control it,” she writes. That’s why MBAs and big companies spend so much time on focus groups, market research, and statistical models. “Effectual reasoning, however, is based on the logic, To the extent that we can control the future, we do not need to predict it.” How do you control the future? By inventing it yourself — marshaling scarce resources, understanding that surprises are to be expected rather than avoided, reacting to them fast.

I love that; defining the future, constantly re-inventing yourself, marshaling scarce resource, understanding that surprises are to be expected. If you break it down, whether your educational background includes an MBA or not has nothing to do with. It is all about a frame of mind, a way of thinking, an “emergent” view of building a great company. It is important to recognize that things don’t always, in fact rarely, go according to plan, but that not all is lost. Course corrections are just part of the game. People who think too much of themself tend to have a fixed mindset; “this is the way this will happen”; and when the plan doesn’t work, they can’t react fast enough.

Which brings me back to that personality trait that separates the great VCs (and entrepreneurs) from the rest. What is it? In my opinion; HUMILITY. Why? Because humility enables you to be introspective, to learn from your mistakes, and to know that things never go according to plan so you can make course corrections along the way. 

Introspection, learning and course corrections are all representative of the theme of this blog; non-linear. It is the way I view the world; everything is iterative; there are no straight lines to success. Success comes to those who are able to shape markets, to define the rules of the game, to respond when assumptions are dashed and to lay down the road ahead so to that others can follow.

Filed under: Lessons Learned, , ,

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