Non-Linear Growth

A glimpse around the next corner; mind the curves.

You set the price; I’ll set the terms

Bill Daniels, a cable tycoon, was a consummate deal maker.  I never had the honor of meeting Bill, but his reputation in the industry has stood the test of time as have some quotes that have been attributed to him. My Partners, some of whom had the great pleasure of knowing and doing business with Bill, are fond of one such quote:

You set the price and I’ll set the terms.

From what I am told, Bill understood the interaction between pricing and structure better than most. The essence of the quote is that pricing and structure are inextricably linked; you cannot fully understand the valuation of the deal without fully understanding each of its elements.

Often, I find that entrepreneurs overemphasize pricing (the pre-money valuation) and under-value structure. This is understandable. The pre-money is “a number”. Being a number, it is easy to understand, requires little interpretation and is easy to communication.

Yeah, we got the venture guys to pay-up with a $(fill in the blank) pre-money.

The pre-money valuation of a deal lends itself to soundbite marketing and entrepreneurial chest-thumping. By driving pricing up, the entrepreneur can bring a big number back to his/her existing investors and Board, thereby validating what the entrepreneur has accomplished. This is all well and good; I’m all for entrepreneurs doing their fiduciary duty and battling to maximize pricing on the behalf of their existing investors. But a focus on pricing completely ignores the other half of the valuation equation, structure.

Unfortunately, in my experience, entrepreneurs over-value a high pre-money price and undervalue structure. Take the example of a $10 million last institutional growth capital round. Lets say the Company is choosing between a convertible preferred structure priced at a $20 million pre-money and a participating preferred structure with a $30 million pre-money. The chart below shows the payout to the new investor from this structure (the bottom axis is exit value, the left axis is $ returns to new investors. I’ve posted the full spreadsheet here.

This is an overly simplistic example, but I think it shows the interplay between structure and pricing very well. Notice that the returns for both structures diverge at the $10 million mark; this is the level at which the liquidating preferences of both structures are paid back. The difference is that the standard convertible preferred structure does not begin participating again until it is advantageous to convert and that happens only when the post-money valuation of the round is exceeded ($30 million). The participating instrument however begins to participate immediately after the liquidation preference is paid back. Although the participating instrument owns less of the company, it returns more than the standard convertible preferred structure all the way up to the $90 million exit value, where the structures are equal. The participation feature acts as a return accelerant at lower levels of exit valuation.

Why is this important? For me, the goal of pricing and structuring a new investment is to get a fair deal that maximizes the alignment between new investors, existing investors and management. By “fair”, I mean that it provides my limited partners with an expected return on capital invested that is commensurate with the risk of the investment. Getting to the right risk-adjusted return is a matter of both pricing and terms. When entrepreneurs try to push the pre-money valuation higher, investors have no choice but to respond with structural return “kickers” like participation features. In the scheme of things, a participating feature is a mild structural advantage for new investors; I’ve seen much worse (multiple liquidating preferences, performance based ownership ratchets, etc.) But even a participation feature can create a disconnect between the interests of existing investors/management and new investors. In this case, the participation feature may lower the new investor’s exit threshold, creating an incentive to sell earlier than they would otherwise. Caps and catch-ups can help to remedy this, but add another layer of complexity. And in my experience, complexity is rightly to be avoided because it often results in unintended consequences.

The point is that entrepreneurs should understand that valuation is matter of both pricing and terms. You cannot understand one without the other. The goal of alignment will always favor a simpler structure at a fair price. Unfortunately, in practice, things are never quite that straightforward.

Filed under: Venture Capital, , , , ,

When Expectations Converge

Yesterday, I posted on a VentureBeat piece covering the correlation between exit market conditions and venture capital company-building behaviour and philosophy; or lack thereof. The piece called for a back-to basics approach to venture capital, where investors are focused true partnering with entrepreneurs to build fundamental value over a traditional investment horizon (5-7 years).

In today’s post, I wanted to tackle the flip side of this issue; the notion that exit markets and general public equity market conditions also have an impact on venture investor investing behaviour. In my opinion, there are three things required for a healthful level of new venture investment activity; liquidity, valuation stability and convergence of expectations

Liquidity

Venture investors fundamentally sell two things; money and expertise in helping the real heros – entrepreneurs – create value. But in order to “sell” money, we have to “buy” money. By by money, I mean we have to fundraise and create a committed pool of capital to invest; a fund. If VCs can’t buy money, we can’t sell money. And right now, many VCs can’t buy money at any price. There are many reasons for this, although I won’t digress into those issues here. Suffice to say, the number of venture funds and venture capitalists is shrinking. And as funds move past their initial investment period, there is less and less liquidity in the market. In the end, this is healthy as many have made the case that the venture asset class has been over-capitalized. But regardless, if there is less capital available to venture funds, there will be less capital available to emerging growth companies.

Valuation Stability

The best proxy for valuation stability is public equity markets. Anyone who has been paying attention in the least knows we’ve had an extremely volatile twelve months. Venture investors don’t like investing in falling markets. Some refer to this as the phenomenon of “catching a falling knife”; not something you want to try, you might get cut. Point being, an investor can look “stupid” for making an investment at a valuation that is cut in half in six months by a falling public equity market. This affects the early stage less than growth and later stage deals, because there is a floor on valuation; you can’t go lower than zero. Early stage deals; particularly Series A rounds simply have less far to fall than their growth and later stage brethren. But when a business can be valued on metrics; multiples of EBITDA, revenue, subscribers, etc., as growth and later stage deals can, new investment activity comes to a screeching halt in falling markets.

The flip side often occurs in rising markets, entrepreneurs think valuations are going to continue to go up and they try to price their deals to implied future valuations as if the market were guaranteed to go up. Point being, both falling and rapidly rising public equity markets can impede new investment activity.

Convergence of Expectations

The final requirement is a convergence of valuation expectations. When markets have recently fallen, investors adjust their valuation requirements down faster than entrepreneurs. And when markets have recently risen, entrepreneurs adjust their expectations down faster than investors. After a down market, entrepreneurs may “wait it out”, refusing to come to grips with the new valuation reality. And in an overvalued or over-bought market, investors may “wait it out” waiting for the bubble to burst or a correction. Again, this applies more to growth and later stage deals than to the early stage, although all stages are affected to some degree.

So where are we now?

I don’t know, but I do have an opinion; no surprise right. I think we’re entering a period of significant deal activity. There is a low, but appropriate level of liquidity in the venture asset class. We’ve come through one of the biggest stock market corrections in history and are now up greater than 50% from the bottom on all the major market indices. Valuations are stabilizing. Entrepreneurs have had the time to adjust to the new valuation realities and investors don’t have an argument that they are either catching a falling knife or that we’re in a bubble. It all sets the tone for a reasonable and balanced valuation discussion between investors and entrepreneurs.

I for one am glad to have a new fund to invest in this environment. I think it is going to be a great time to invest and to build strong, growing and profitable operating companies that can stand-alone for years to come.

Filed under: New Investments, Risk, Venture Capital, , , ,

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